Description

This analysis provides a forecast of RON14101 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-01-19 1.200577 1.362979 1.535025 1.730425 1.945739 2.175301 2.438104
2025-01-26 0.982025 1.205315 1.456657 1.758853 2.110563 2.505181 2.979544
2025-02-02 0.809708 1.071629 1.383983 1.779957 2.264246 2.832788 3.545856
2025-02-09 0.662048 0.945320 1.303075 1.780490 2.392502 3.141852 4.118793
2025-02-16 0.545278 0.840214 1.234423 1.787226 2.528106 3.471335 4.745249
2025-02-23 0.433355 0.723452 1.134633 1.740909 2.590069 3.712987 5.281780
2025-03-02 0.334447 0.607816 1.019742 1.658960 2.594485 3.878480 5.731821
2025-03-09 0.273817 0.539474 0.963356 1.652570 2.701769 4.189721 6.399204
2025-03-16 0.219959 0.471502 0.897165 1.622517 2.770426 4.450942 7.015067
2025-03-23 0.189845 0.439049 0.883280 1.671696 2.961355 4.900472 7.926637
2025-03-30 0.149711 0.378766 0.812548 1.618911 2.987655 5.107238 8.497475
2025-04-06 0.121663 0.335839 0.765513 1.599477 3.063892 5.392822 9.200774
2025-04-13 0.096438 0.293489 0.714618 1.570785 3.128957 5.676661 9.937833
2025-04-20 0.082238 0.272761 0.702835 1.612196 3.317259 6.169465 11.028864
2025-04-27 0.069453 0.251833 0.687064 1.644074 3.491810 6.651944 12.132611
2025-05-04 0.057303 0.228619 0.662048 1.654332 3.628003 7.079474 13.172389
2025-05-11 0.047467 0.208569 0.640404 1.668477 3.772273 7.529496 14.273216
2025-05-18 0.036946 0.181921 0.597283 1.630782 3.813556 7.803014 15.094390
2025-05-25 0.027279 0.153215 0.542082 1.557770 3.777425 7.935692 15.682607
2025-06-01 0.021953 0.137986 0.519303 1.555388 3.882397 8.327877 16.735487
2025-06-08 0.017033 0.121453 0.488726 1.529678 3.935961 8.627598 17.640110
2025-06-15 0.014720 0.115552 0.488575 1.578899 4.152185 9.243051 19.131209
2025-06-22 0.010949 0.099456 0.452212 1.530352 4.151548 9.445338 19.888967